Set your assumptions
Use your own figures, or explore the example.
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Horizontal axis: incremental sales · Vertical axis: contribution, before campaign cost
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What if contribution changes?
Keep campaign cost and close rate fixed. Test a 20% change in contribution per sale.
| Scenario | Contribution / sale | Sales | Est. leads |
|---|
Scenario contribution is rounded to cents, with a 0.01 minimum and a ceiling of revenue per sale. Lead targets use expected conversion; they cannot guarantee sales.
Know what the number means.
In the example, a $15,000 campaign and $200 contribution per sale need 75 additional sales to cover campaign cost. At a 20% assumed close rate, the expected lead target is 375.
Sales = round up (campaign cost ÷ contribution per sale)
Estimated leads = round up [campaign cost ÷ (contribution per sale × close rate)]
Close rate is a decimal in the formula: 20% = 0.20. Revenue at the whole-sale target is sales × revenue per sale.
Assumptions and limits
- Counts incremental sales attributable to the campaign; existing sales do not automatically count.
- Uses a constant contribution and close rate. Timing, capacity and customer mix can change outcomes.
- Covers the campaign costs you include, not necessarily all business overhead or cash-flow needs.
- A zero close rate produces no finite lead target for a positive budget. Zero campaign cost produces zero required sales.
- Uses first-sale contribution. Repeat purchases and lifetime value are excluded.
Help someone make
a clearer campaign plan.
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Turn the numbers into a campaign.
Rock can help you check the assumptions, develop creative and plan your media.