SEPARATE FIRST-SALE CASH FROM FUTURE VALUE

Customer Value and Payback Planner

Compare first-sale contribution with bounded repeat-purchase scenarios. See when expected contribution could cover acquisition cost.

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Your assumptions

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SCENARIO · NOT A FORECAST

Your planning result

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See the comparison

Read the example.

A $200 first sale plus two $150 repeat purchases in year one contributes $500. With 80% retention, modeled year-two repeats contribute another $240. Two-year expected contribution is $740, or $580 after $160 acquisition cost. The first sale alone covers acquisition in this example.

The method

Year 1 repeat contribution = repeats/year × contribution/repeat. Later-year repeat contribution = year 1 repeats × annual retention^(year−1). Horizon contribution = first-sale contribution + modeled repeat contribution. Payback month uses evenly spread repeat contribution within each year.

Assumptions and limits

Future repeats and retention are assumptions, not money available now. First-sale contribution is shown separately.
The same annual retention and purchase rate are applied uniformly. There is no discounting, inflation, churn recovery, cohort fitting or tax model.
Payback assumes repeats are spread evenly by month, which may differ substantially from real payment timing. No payback within the entered horizon is reported as unavailable.
Contribution excludes variable fulfillment cost but not necessarily fixed overhead, financing or acquisition cost. Net modeled contribution is not final business profit.

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Custom-built by Rock Advertising · Updated October 21, 2026 · Rock Toolbox